Comprehensive forensic tracking of national leaders analysed under the Spectrum of Sovereign Intent™ framework. SIR scores, Strata classifications, Masking Confidence Index, and Intent Drift signals — updated continuously.
| Leader ⇅ | Country ⇅ | Role | SIR ⇅ | Prev | Δ Drift | Strata | MCI ⇅ | Audit Date | Key Risk / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Africa | |||||||||
Bola Ahmed Tinubu |
🇳🇬 Nigeria |
President | 20 | 17 | ▲ +3 | L02 Anchor | 0.15 | May 2026 | Sub-national governance variance remains the primary risk. |
Olayemi Cardoso |
🇳🇬 Nigeria |
CBN Governor | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Data-dependent, rules-based monetary policy. Unblemished record. |
Taiwo Oyedele |
🇳🇬 Nigeria |
Minister of Finance | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Short tenure (2 mo). Quarterly data publication pledged. Monitor. |
Hope Uzodimma |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Imo) |
Governor | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | 83.4% CapEx anchor; IFC partnership. Safe harbour. |
Seyi Makinde |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Oyo) |
Governor | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L02 (L04 drift) | 0.20 | May 2026 | #EndSARS implementation gap; legislative friction. |
Charles Soludo |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Anambra) |
Governor | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.35 | May 2026 | Personal megacity vision; court-order friction. |
Nyesom Wike |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (FCT) |
Minister | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.30 | May 2026 | Combative; personalistic; infrastructure delivery vs. institutional friction. |
Mohammed Bago |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Niger) |
Governor | 3 | 4 | ▼ −1 | L04 Visionary | 0.30 | May 2026 | Land-use "regularisation" motion; personalistic drift. |
Ahmed Ododo |
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Kogi) |
Governor | 2 | 2 | ● 0 | L01 Materialist | 0.90 | May 2026 | Extreme opacity; EFCC obstruction. Governance red zone. |
Cyril Ramaphosa |
🇿🇦 South Africa |
President | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.15 | May 2026 | Phala Phala governance scar (monitored). Strong institutions. |
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi |
🇪🇬 Egypt |
President | 2 | 2 | ● 0 | L01 Materialist | 0.80 | May 2026 | Military autocrat; elections a façade. Extreme governance risk. |
Mohammed VI |
🇲🇦 Morocco |
King | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L05 Steward | 0.20 | May 2026 | Modernising monarch; reserved powers; Makhzen opacity. |
| [Add Leader] | [Country] | [Role] | [SIR] | [Prev] | [Δ] | [Strata] | [MCI] | [Date] | [Key Risk / Note] |
| 🌎 Americas | |||||||||
Donald J. Trump |
🇺🇸 United States |
President | 2 | 4 | ▼ −2 | L04 Visionary | 0.55 | May 2026 | DOJ captured; civil service dismantling; Jan 6 scar. Institutions hold. |
Javier Milei |
🇦🇷 Argentina |
President | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.15 | May 2026 | Libertarian Visionary; DNU bypass; constrained by democratic institutions. |
Lula da Silva |
🇧🇷 Brazil |
President | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.25 | May 2026 | Historical Lava Jato scar. Post-2023 record clean. Strong institutions. |
Mark Carney |
🇨🇦 Canada |
Prime Minister | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Central Banker PM. Minority govt. Exemplary institutionalist. |
Claudia Sheinbaum |
🇲🇽 Mexico |
President | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L02 Pragmatist | 0.20 | May 2026 | Scientist-Heir. AMLO institutional legacy. Judiciary under pressure. |
| [Add Leader] | [Country] | [Role] | [SIR] | [Prev] | [Δ] | [Strata] | [MCI] | [Date] | [Key Risk / Note] |
| 🌍 Europe | |||||||||
Keir Starmer |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
Prime Minister | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Manager-PM. Exemplary institutionalist. Boring is good. |
Emmanuel Macron |
🇫🇷 France |
President | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.20 | May 2026 | Technocratic Visionary. Article 49.3 use. Institutions constrain. |
Friedrich Merz |
🇩🇪 Germany |
Chancellor | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Conservative institutionalist. Coalition governance. Strong Bundesrat. |
Giorgia Meloni |
🇮🇹 Italy |
Prime Minister | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.20 | May 2026 | Conservative Visionary. Pragmatic in office. EU constraints. |
Vladimir Putin |
🇷🇺 Russia |
President | 0 | 0 | ● 0 | L01 Materialist | 0.95 | May 2026 | Masked autocrat. L05 Holy War mask over L01 core. Extreme risk. |
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan |
🇹🇷 Türkiye |
President | 2 | 2 | ● 0 | L01 Materialist | 0.85 | May 2026 | Plebiscitary Sultan. L04-to-L01 drift. Elections competitive but unfair. |
Ursula von der Leyen |
🇪🇺 European Union |
Commission President | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L02 Pragmatist | 0.30 | May 2026 | Pfizergate scar. Institutional framework stronger than leader. |
| [Add Leader] | [Country] | [Role] | [SIR] | [Prev] | [Δ] | [Strata] | [MCI] | [Date] | [Key Risk / Note] |
| 🌏 Asia-Pacific & Middle East | |||||||||
Narendra Modi |
🇮🇳 India |
Prime Minister | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.25 | May 2026 | Plebiscitary Visionary. Majoritarian drift. Agencies instrumentalised. |
Prabowo Subianto |
🇮🇩 Indonesia |
President | 4 | 4 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.25 | May 2026 | Nationalist Visionary. Downstreaming policy. Historical HR scar. |
Sanae Takaichi |
🇯🇵 Japan |
Prime Minister | 12 | 12 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.15 | May 2026 | Abe Heir. Constitutional revision agenda. Short tenure. Monitor. |
Lee Jae-myung |
🇰🇷 South Korea |
President | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.15 | May 2026 | Progressive institutionalist. Single-term limit. Strong institutions. |
Mohammed bin Salman |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia |
Crown Prince / PM | 2 | 2 | ● 0 | L04 Visionary | 0.35 | May 2026 | Dynastic Visionary. Vision 2030 genuine. Methods L01. Extreme risk. |
Shehbaz Sharif |
🇵🇰 Pakistan |
Prime Minister | 10 | 10 | ● 0 | L02 (Structural L01) | 0.30 | May 2026 | PM doesn't rule. Military veto. PTI suppressed. IMF dependency. |
Paetongtarn Shinawatra |
🇹🇭 Thailand |
Prime Minister | 10 | 10 | ● 0 | L02 (Structural L01) | 0.30 | May 2026 | PM doesn't rule. Military/royal/judicial veto. MFP dissolved. |
Anthony Albanese |
🇦🇺 Australia |
Prime Minister | 20 | 20 | ● 0 | L02 Anchor | 0.05 | May 2026 | Democratic institutionalist. Voice referendum accepted. Exemplary. |
| [Add Leader] | [Country] | [Role] | [SIR] | [Prev] | [Δ] | [Strata] | [MCI] | [Date] | [Key Risk / Note] |
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